Turkish rebar offers to the US showed softness this week as trading resumed following the Eid holiday, sources said Tuesday.
S&P Global Platts lowered its daily imported rebar assessment to $358-$363/st CIF Houston, down from $363-$367/st.
US traders put current offers from Turkish mills around $390/mt CFR ($358/st CIF), but said offers around $385/mt CFR ($354/st CIF) were being discussed.
Buying out of Turkey has slowed in recent months, but a trade case filed this week by US mills is not expected to change buying patterns in the short term, one US trader said. Late Monday, US rebar producers petitioned the government to launch antidumping and countervailing duty investigations on rebar imports from Japan, Taiwan and Turkey.
"I don't think people are going to care about the trade case from a purchasing standpoint, it's going to be all about the mills' appetite for selling," the trader said.
While imports from the three countries named in the case have surged in recent years, the trader expressed doubt that allegations of dumping could prove to be true.
"I understand why they filed against Japan and Taiwan and it's because the import numbers have surged, but I don't think it's because they dumped steel," he said.
The Rebar Trade Action Coalition and its individual members -- Bayou Steel Group, Byer Steel Group, Commercial Metals Co., Gerdau Ameristeel US, Nucor and Steel Dynamics Inc. -- which filed the petition argue that between 2013 and 2015 import volumes from the subject countries rose by 160.4%, with the largest increase occurring in 2015. From 2013 to 2015, subject imports rose from 742,313 st to 1.93 million st in 2015, according to the petition. At the same time, the lower-priced imports coming into the US has depressed and suppressed prices for domestic producers, they said.
However during this same period other trade actions effectively blocked imports of rebar from the US market, the trader said.
"Mexico is no longer here, Korea is no longer here, Spain is no longer here, so those tons have to come from somewhere," he said.
The trade case could push import prices from the named countries higher if they feel there is a chance they could face duties, said a US distributor. "You may see more responsible pricing and see supply tighten up a little bit if foreign producers aren't confident they will prevail," he said.
But with the US previously finding no dumping margin for Turkey and a 1.25% subsidy rate -- with the exclusion of Habas -- in 2013, it's hard to speculate how things may play out this time around, the distributor said.
Turkish and US mills have been fighting in the courts over dumping duties on Turkish rebar. Earlier this year, after an appeal of the 2013 case by US mills, Commerce revised its dumping margin from zero to 3.64% for all Turkish mills except for Habas, however the revised duty margin has not gone into effect.
"Throwing Turkey into this case almost seems like an afterthought to get another round of information," the trader said. "The only thing that's really changed about the market (since the filing of the last trade case) is that the quantities are up year on year."
