Dutch spot gas prices reverted to a contango Tuesday morning after closing in backwardation the previous session, correcting the previous gains on bearish fundamentals which also influenced German prices, while the curve suffered from crude posting losses on record production from Saudi Arabia.
By midday London time, TTF day-ahead last traded at Eur12.85/MWh, down 67.5 euro cent from Monday's close. German GASPOOL day-ahead was last seen trading at Eur13.075/MWh, down 25 euro cent, while its NetConnect peer was at Eur13.125/MWh, down 52.5 euro cent.
The spread between the two German spot hubs narrowed, with the GASPOOL contract at a 5 euro cent discount to its NCG counterpart after closing at a 35.5 euro cent discount to NCG Monday.
CustomWeather forecast temperatures in Amsterdam 1 degrees Celsius above seasonal norms Tuesday, rising to 2 C above norms Wednesday and 4 C above norms Friday.
Berlin, in the GASPOOL area, was predicted to be at seasonal norms Tuesday, rising to 2 C above seasonal norms Wednesday and set to rise to as high as 4 C above seasonal norms Saturday. In Munich, in the NCG area, temperatures were expected at seasonal norms Tuesday but falling to 2 C below seasonal norms Wednesday.
The UK gas system was 18 million cu m/d long Tuesday morning, according to National Grid's morning forecast, with supply of 220 million cu m/d compared with demand of 202 million cu m/d.
Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the Dutch-German border Tuesday were 108.1 million cu m/day around midday London time, according to transmission system operator Gassco, down from 118.5 million cu m/d at the same time Monday.
Norwegian gas field Skarv was reported to still be affected by an unplanned outage with a capacity reduction of 5 million cu m/d for within-day flows Tuesday, with a duration of 24-48 hours, while the outage at the Asgard field was reported to have ended Tuesday, indicated by Gassco.
At around midday London time, Platts Analytics' Eclipse Energy forecast end-of-day consumption in the Netherlands to be steady Tuesday and Wednesday at 70.9 million cu m. While supply was forecast at 161.1 million cu m for the same days.
In Germany, consumption was forecast at 149.3 million cu m Tuesday, increasing to 150.1 million cu m Wednesday. Similarly supply was seen increasing from from 389.3 million cu m Tuesday to 409.8 million cu m Wednesday.
The short-term demand model is calculated from the latest demand, temperature and wind speed out-turns.
The Joint Organisations Data Initiative released data Monday showing record high crude production from Saudi Arabia, which dragged crude lower with November ICE Brent down 28 cents from Monday's close at $45.67/b.
Front-month contracts were seen posting overall losses, with the TTF October delivery last traded 27.5 euro cent down at Eur13.175/MWh, while the corresponding NCG contract was down 25 euro cent at Eur13.475/MWh and GASPOOL was at Eur13.225/MWh, down 27.5 euro cent.
