UK exports of natural gas to Belgium through the Interconnector look set to increase to a three-year high Wednesday after a bearish NBP spot Tuesday led to the ZEE/NBP day-ahead basis widening to its highest since June 2014, according to analysis by S&P Global Platts.
The ZEE day-ahead contract was assessed at 29.075 pence/therm Tuesday, a 2.25 p/th premium to the NBP equivalent, in comparison to the August 1-26 average of a 0.923 p/th discount, Platts price data shows.
The ZEE/NBP day-ahead basis has flipped to positive recently on the back of solid UK gas production and steady Norwegian gas imports, with the ZEE and TTF peers supported by high prices in France allied to weaker Norwegian flows to Continental Europe on the back of Karsto maintenance.
As a result, IUK 11:00 am (1000 GMT) export nominations were close to 60 million cu m, which if realized, would be the highest export total for a single gas day since June 2013.
Despite the weaker spot market, the NBP September 16 contract held above the ZEE and TTF equivalents Tuesday, assessed at 28.75 p/th with the TTF month -ahead contract closed 0.175 p/th below NBP and the ZEE front-month at a 0.40 p/th discount to NBP.
KARSTO WORKS HIT CONTINENTAL IMPORTS
Flows via pipelines from the Norwegian Continental Shelf to Continental Europe have seen a steep fall since the Karsto gas processing plant began planned maintenance on Saturday, while UK receipts have remained steady in late August.
Flows to Continental Europe from the NCS averaged 116 million cu m/d over the weekend, 42% lower than the 200 million cu m/d average from August 1-26, according to data from Platts Analytics' Eclipse Energy.
However, UK receipts have remained steady around the 50 million cu m/d mark since the Karsto maintenance began, even with the shutdown of the Easington terminal Tuesday for planned works.
The Karsto maintenance is due to last until early September 16, according to Norwegian gas operator Gassco, and with the Zeebrugge receiving terminal due for a four-day shutdown for annual maintenance on the September 2-6 gas days, Continental flows may remain low in the short term.
