An increase in oil production from unconventional shale plays will drive total US crude oil production up in both 2011 and 2012, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Domestic production will average 5.57 million b/d in 2011, the EIA said. That is up from the revised average of 5.47 million b/d in 2010 and slightly higher than the EIA had forecast in its July outlook.
For 2012, the EIA expects domestic production to average 5.65 million b/d. That represents a slight boost from the 5.61 million b/d the EIA had estimated in its July Outlook.
All the gains are coming from increased production in the Lower-48 states, the EIA said. Alaska production is expected to fall to an average of 550,000 b/d in 2011 and 530,000 b/d in 2012. Production from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to decline to an average of 1.47 million b/d in 2011 and decline even further in 2012 to an average of 1.39 million b/d, the EIA said. That compares with an average of 1.63 million b/d in 2010, the EIA said.
Liquid net fuel imports, which includes both crude oil and refined products, are expected to drop to an average of 47% as a share of total consumption in 2011 before rising slightly to 48% in 2012, the EIA said.
