As concerns over Turkey's security situation lingering in the aftermath of the coup attempt last Friday, market participants said there was no immediate impact seen in the Asian polyvinyl chloride industry. However, most industry sources said they will be monitoring the situation closely. "We will look and see the developments in Turkey. For now we don't have a decision yet on whether or not to stop any shipments. Anyway we export only small volumes to Turkey, about 300 to 400 mt per month," one major Northeast Asia producer said Monday.
Other sources said that relatively high freight rates to bring cargoes from the Far East to Turkey as well as relatively low PVC prices from Europe have limited trade flows into Turkey from Asia like Taiwan and Indonesia this year. A second NE Asian PVC maker said that since June, trade activity from Taiwan to Turkey has not been very active. He also said that "the coup attempt did not impact current Taiwanese export PVC business to Turkey. However, we need to watch the market situation for any further changes or impact in the future."
In 2015, only 7% of cargoes imported into Turkey came from Asian suppliers, which amounted to about 56,879 mt.
Meanwhile, another Southeast Asian PVC producer said he could foresee an indirect impact moving forward. The failed coup attempt has somehow added to the already fragile security situation in Turkey recently, inevitably, compounding reluctance among sellers to ship cargoes there, he said.
The same source also said that there could be an impact on the Asian PVC market later down the road if US-origin, European, and Middle Eastern cargoes shift elsewhere like Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia instead of Turkey. Prices could be under pressure especially for September if the market is oversupplied.
"Currently, prices are at low $800/mt CFR NEA and I think September it will be back to $780-790/mt," a source said.
"It could be likely that sellers will take a conservative stance regarding Turkey," he added. Sellers would not want to take the risk of fixing cargoes at the moment amid the uncertain situation in Turkey, he said.
Inevitably, sellers could have fears about whether or not their Turkish customers will have issues later on with regards to payment settlement, he said.
At the same time, sellers will most likely consider the possibility of cargoes getting stuck in the ports in case a further uprising occurs in the next few weeks or months ahead, he added. "Sellers [will] try to avoid any trade with Turkey for the next three months until everything is stabilized," he said.
Signs of disruptions in trade flows were already seen. "We did not get any official port closure notice, but when we checked the market, major [ship] liners have temporarily suspended or closed their service to Turkey port destinations," he said adding that companies like Maersk, Evergreen and Wan Hai are a few of the companies he checked with recently that have halted shipments to Turkey until further notice. This could not be immediately confirmed by S&P Global Platts.
However, any slowdown in Turkey imports could offset the tight supply in Europe. "Plants in EU are on maintenance, so not much supply is available from the EU which gives some balance. Prices are [about] 800/mt for PVC CFR Turkey, $830-850/mt for Taiwan origin PVC, and $900-950/mt for EU origin," a European trader said Sunday.
In 2015, about 50% of cargoes imported into Turkey came from Europe with total volume amounting to about 442,114 mt, data from the United Nations showed. The top three importers last year were France, US, and Mexico, the data also showed.
According to Manuel Asali, vice president at Nexant, about a little over 850,000 mt of PVC net imports are estimated into Turkey in 2016. That is against the 783,857 mt net imports in 2015, as shown by data from the United Nations.
It is yet to be seen if there will be significant impact to the worldwide PVC market as Turkey's political environment remains unstable and uncertain. Overall, industry participants will keep an eye on Turkey as development unfolds.
