Australia's Department of Industry, Innovation & Science has projected global alumina deficits of 4 million mt in 2016 and 2017.
Global consumption in 2016 is anticipated to rise 3% year on year to 116 million mt and production to rise 3% to 112 million mt, the DIIS said Friday in a report.
The office anticipates global alumina consumption rising 7% in 2017 to 125 million mt, supported by higher aluminum output in China, Russia and the Middle East.
It said global alumina production is anticipated to increase by 7% to nearly 121 million mt, driven by capacity restarts in China and new output in Jamaica, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and the UAE.
The DIIS said it would expect the price of alumina to average $238/mt FOB Australia in 2016, rising to average $250/mt in 2017, underpinned by an expected increase in production costs and higher global aluminum production.
The price of Australian alumina averaged $300.47/mt FOB in 2015, according to S&P Global Platts data.
Platts Australian alumina price assessment averaged $222/mt FOB and $252/mt in the first and second quarters of 2016 respectively.
