* 60 TWh green heat hike needed* 25 TWh green transport hike needed* Gas, flexibility key to transition
Significant progress is needed in the heat and transport sectors if the UK is to meet its 2020 renewable energy target, National Grid said Tuesday in its annual Future Energy Scenarios document.
And looking further out, action needs to be taken this decade to drive progress towards the UK's 2050 target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels.
The grid company updates its four regular energy scenarios in the latest forecast.The scenarios are Gone Green (where policy interventions and innovation are ambitious and effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions); Consumer Power (a market-driven world, with limited government intervention); No Progression (a world where business as usual activities prevail); and Slow Progression (a world where economic conditions limit society's ability to decarbonize).
The UK is committed to meeting 15% of overall energy from renewables by 2020. Sector-specific targets to achieve the overall goal require 34% of electricity, 10% of heat and 10% of transport to be renewable by 2020.
While National Grid's Gone Green scenario meets the UK's 2020 sub-target for electricity due to the growth of wind, bioenergy and solar generation, slower progress in heat and transport means all four scenarios fail to hit the overall 2020 target. In fact the target is not hit until 2022 in Gone Green, and as late as 2029 in No Progression.
"The sector requiring most development is heating," National Grid says. "To meet the 15% target, renewable heat needs to increase by around 60 TWh from 2016 levels. Over the past four years there was an increase of less than 10 TWh, therefore the pace of change needs to increase significantly." A 25 TWh increase in renewable transport is required, meanwhile, over and above the current level of 14.5 TWh.
ELECTRICITY THE KEY
Looking to the UK's 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target, National Grid agrees with Parliament's Committee on Climate Change that the cost-optimal route is to decarbonize electricity generation, then use low-carbon electricity to support greening the heat and transport sectors.
"While other technologies can support the transition, decarbonizing the electricity generation sector requires at least two of nuclear, renewable and carbon capture and storage (CCS)," the grid company says.
"The cost-optimal pathway utilizes all three of these technologies, using approximately 22 GW of nuclear, 100 GW of renewables and 20 GW of CCS in 2050," it says.
GREENER GAS
Renewable sources of electricity and gas will be needed in the transition, with National Grid forecasting an evolution in gas supplies.
"New sources of gas are under development to supplement traditional gas supplies," it says. "These include shale, biomethane, bio-substitute natural gas, and hydrogen from electricity to gas schemes. Consumer Power 2016 sees 54% of gas demand met by alternative sources by 2040."
Gas will play a key role in energy decarbonization by providing flexible electricity generation and top-up heating over the long term, the document says.
"While currently used as base load generation, over the scenario period gas will become an increasingly important source of flexible electricity generation. This flexibility will support the growth of renewable sources of electricity generation," it says.
Gas will be a primary heating fuel until the 2040s and will then support the electrification of the sector by providing the most efficient source for top-up heating.
Changes in gas demand "will create new operability challenges, requiring greater system flexibility," it says.
DEMAND SIDE FLEXIBILITY
Meanwhile the replacement of conventional generation with an ever-divergent mix of renewables and small-scale generation is accelerating faster than anticipated.
The trend creates an increasingly important opportunity for consumers to offer demand flexibility services, National Grid says.
"Through our Power Responsive programme we are collaborating and engaging with potential participants to accelerate the uptake of demand side response opportunities," it says.
Electricity storage can also support flexibility requirements, the document says, with the scenarios showing a maximum installed capacity from storage technologies of 18 GW in 2040.
