The NYMEX August natural gas prompt-month contract jumped 6.1 cents to settle at $2.924/MMBtu, its highest close since August 12, 2015, on bullish weather reports and a below-average injection reported by the US Energy Information Administration.
The August contract traded in range of $2.851/MMBtu to $2.945/MMBtu.
According to the EIA's weekly gas storage report, a net injection of 37 Bcf was reported for the week ended June 24, including a non-flow-related adjustment that decreased working gas stocks by about 5 Bcf.
This injection falls below the 46 Bcf expected by a consensus of analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts and was below last year's 73-Bcf injection and the five-year average of 78 Bcf, boosting prompt-month prices.
Additional upward pressure on prices came from a projected tightening of the supply-demand balance. Platts unit Bentek Energy projected total US demand to reach 66.7 Bcf/d over the next seven days amid bullish weather reports, almost 2 Bcf/d higher than the June month-to-date average, while total US production is expected to sit around 70.1 Bcf/d, about 400 MMcf/d lower than the June month-to-date average and almost 2 Bcf/d lower than June 2015.
Weather will continue to be a driver for the prompt-month contract. According to Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, "we haven't seen the worst heat wave yet. July is expected to be a scorcher." If this weather projection comes to fruition, it will give a fair amount of momentum to the prompt-month contract, Flynn added.
In the latest six- to 10-day outlook released by the National Weather Service, above-average temperatures are expected over much of the country, in particular over the major demand centers of Texas, the Southeast and Upper Midwest.
This trend is expected to continue in the eight- to 14-day outlook, when elevated temperatures are forecast to remain over these major demand centers, supporting sustained demand levels and providing upward pressure on the prompt-month contract heading into the middle of the July.
The NYMEX settlement price is considered preliminary and subject to change until a final settlement price is posted at 7 pm EDT (2300 GMT).
