A jump in the US dollar gold price over the past week, after disappointing nonfarm employment data spooked the market, has led participants to forecast a move towards $1,280-$1,300/troy oz over the next seven days, the S&P Global Platts Gold Sentiment Survey indicated Thursday.
The poll of 20 industry participants showed most of those who responded had turned bullish on the price outlook. This came after three consecutive weeks of bearish predictions.
Using the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price as a benchmark reference point, the price was discovered Thursday afternoon at $1,263.90/tr oz, from a settlement in the afternoon of June 2 at $1,212.40/tr oz.
The previous survey came one day before the dismal US jobs data, June 3.
That day the LBMA Gold Price jumped to $1,240.50/tr oz at the afternoon settlement, from $1,211/tr oz in the morning.
One participant said he sees the price continuing higher, towards $1,280/tr oz and then $1,300/tr oz.
He put the moves down to continued dollar weakness and a diminished possibility of a US interest rate hike at the next two meetings.
"That leaves a long, hot summer, with low liquidity, for the price to go much higher," said another participant.
CME Fed Fund Futures show the probability of a rate hike under 50% all the way out to the December meeting, where bets are around 60% of a modest increase.
Some 41.8% see a 0.25 basis point increase with 41.1% unchanged, at the December meeting.
"US macro [will remain key]. There will likely be no rate rise until September at the earliest now. Also, the US dollar has topped out and is set to weaken again," said one respondent.
Another said that gold had hit a "sweet spot" helped in part by an oil price above $50/b, stoking some inflation concerns.
Most survey participants forecast physical demand -- from the world's number one and number two consumers China and India -- unchanged to lower over the course of the week.
PGP India 995 was assessed Thursday at minus $15/oz.
The assessment has averaged minus $16/tr oz so far in 2016.
In China the SGE premium ranged $2/oz, over dollar spot, according to survey respondents.
The premium in China has averaged around $2.5/tr oz so far in 2016.
This week Dubai was heard in a discount of $2/tr oz with Turkey around flat to modest premium.
