Molybdenum oxide trading all but halted Tuesday in a stalemate between buyers and sellers, with no transactions reported and little in the way of firm bids or offers seen.
The Platts daily dealer molybdenum oxide assessment spread narrowed to $8.10-$8.25/lb on Tuesday, based on market indications within that range, from $8.10-$8.40/lb on Friday.
There was no assessment on Monday, because of a holiday in the UK, and the assessment follows a UK holiday schedule.
A producer source reported offering at $8.25/lb, in-warehouse Rotterdam, but was unable to book a deal. The same source reported achieving $8.90 last week and said: "It's been sliding since then in terms of offers."
A trader reported seeing indications at $8.00-$8.10/lb, but no firm offers or bids. The same trader had sold a "sub lot" at $8.20 for prompt release, in-warehouse Rotterdam at the end of last week.
"I don't think the consumers are in need of material, so [they] may come at the last moment," the trader said.
The trader predicted that those traders who had acquired long positions over the last two months and did not have any conversion commitments to convert oxide powder into ferromolybdenum were likely to unwind their positions. "Non-converting traders will liquidate and take their margins. Once that is done, then it will be a different market," the trader said.
The source predicted oxide prices could ease to $7.50, or even $7/lb. "It depends on how many trading companies unwind who don't need it for their own consumption," the source said.
Another trader said the market was correcting from a sharp rally seen in May. "It broke out of it's long-term range [$5-$6/lb]. When it went towards $9, you're getting to the level where it's more interesting for the primary guys to consider producing, but it's too soon for oxide to be sustainable at those levels."
But the trader said there was no sign of buying appetite. If there was buying appetite, "it would be in the low $8s," he said.
Consumers canvassed by Platts were not in the market for either spot moly oxide or ferromolybdenum and several could not be reached.
Several sources said moly oxide was in stronger hands compared with ferromolybdenum, where more traders were holding stocks and where conversion margins have remained negative in the last few weeks.
"If you're looking for an offer of FeMo, it's easy to get five or six offers, but if you're doing that with oxide, you may only get two or three offers," the trader said.
Sources noted that Codelco has had oxide shipment delays to Europe, although material is understood to be close to arriving in Rotterdam. Codelco stopped offering spot oxide in late April in Rotterdam, according to sources, indicating it would have nothing available before June.
Molymet has also had less oxide powder available for spot sales, according to sources, while Kennecott has continued to see reduced molybdenum recoveries from its mine in Utah, and has also seen low head grades.
But several sources also said the supply-side fundamentals had already been factored into the moly oxide price, while demand has been steady so far this year.
The first trader said that after a rally of around 70% this year, "a correction is justified." But the trader said that if demand picked up, then a robust price rally was possible.
One trader said he had received indications for oxide powder at below $8/lb, suggesting the material was "biddable" at that level. There were reports, which could not be verified, that a container load of moly oxide had traded at $7.90/lb on a CIF India basis for June shipment.
Ferromolybdenum also failed to see any activity on Tuesday. An online auction held by a German steel mill was said to have been booked at below $18.25/kg, delivered, duty-paid basis. A producer source reported offering at $18.35 and then lowering its offer to $18.25 without obtaining a booking.
The source suggested the transaction may have been concluded at $18.10. But another trader said the auction may not be indicative and that the buyer may have put in a low price of its own for the sole purpose of driving the price down.
The same trader reported selling a prompt parcel of FeMo in Belgium at $19.50, with a requirement for a "very high molybdenum content," which he said was not representative of the market.
The Platts daily European ferromolybdenum assessment fell to $18.50-$19.25/kg, duty-paid, in-warehouse Rotterdam, on Tuesday, from $19.00-$19.50/kg on Friday.
The latest assessment was based on the transaction for high-molybdenum content material at $19.50 and a lack of evidence of repeatability of transactions priced at $18.25 or lower.
