French prompt power prices fell Friday with the weekend expected to show a rise in renewables output in France and Germany, while demand Monday was forecast to reach a high of only 48.4 GW during peakload hours, down around 7 GW from Friday, due to the Whit Monday public holiday, sources said.
Baseload power for delivery Monday was last heard trading at Eur17/MWh before the Platts 1100 London close, Eur9.75 lower than Thursday's assessment of Friday baseload, while peakload power for Monday was last heard around Eur13.5 lower and below baseload at Eur16/MWh.
Saturday baseload was last heard at Eur14/MWh.
Epex Spot settled the auction for day-ahead baseload at Eur13.62/MWh.
Nuclear supply Friday was 600 MW higher at 43.2 GW day on day during peakload hours.
Hydro generation at peak times Friday was up 1.3 GW on the day, while gas output fell by 1.2 GW and coal generation was halved at 220 MW, RTE data showed.
On the renewables side, wind in-feed was up by 1.2 GW to 1.7 GW during peakload hours, while solar was down 600 MW to 2.2 GW, RTE data showed.
Combined wind and solar generation was seen rising to 4.4 GW Saturday and 4.2 GW Sunday, before dropping slightly to 3.7 GW Monday, according to spotrenewables.com.
Demand Friday reached a peak of 55.6 GW and was due to drop Saturday and reach a high of 48.5 GW, while Monday next week demand was forecast to go above 48.4 GW as France celebrated the Whit Monday public holiday.
Temperatures were nearly 2 degrees Celsius above the seasonal norm Friday and were due to fall to 2.3 C below the norm Saturday and 4.6 C below norms Sunday, before rebounding only slightly to 3.7 below the average for this period Monday next week.
Last Sunday, France saw prices turn negative during some hours of the day, but market expectations for this Sunday were for prices to drop to zero, with the risk of them falling into negative territory lower.
Sunday base was last heard trading Friday at Eur8.5/MWh.
"At this level it could mean that some hours will be below Eur0/MWh," a Danish market player trading French power said. "There will be big pressure from Germany, where prices go negative on high wind and solar, but I don't think prices will collapse in Switzerland as last weekend."
"It depends whether EDF will close some of the nukes...and depends on whether some plants will be offline since on Monday there is a public holiday," he added.
A French trader said: "Prices can go below Eur0/MWh for some hours as they did last Sunday but not on average."
"There is a risk of prices below Eur0/MWh," he said. "But weather-related demand could be supportive."
Residual thermal demand in France was seen at around 35 GW this Sunday for hours 16 and 17 [local time], while last Sunday residual thermal demand was around 30-33 GW during the same hours, according to the same French trader.
A Swiss trader said: "This weekend, we will see below 10 GW of residual demand in Germany."
"Monday could be very interesting: if [hourly] prices for Sunday fall significantly under Eur5/MWh, the Monday price will fall like a knife. Furthermore, wind output for Monday is still very volatile, i.e. has a lot of downside potential," he added.
