Spot gas prices in the UK's NBP hub rose in early trading Thursday, as supply from Norway and sendouts from the two LNG terminals at Milford Haven dropped early in the morning which, despite increased supply from Bacton, left fundamentals on the undersupplied side.
At 11 am UK time, the within-day and day-ahead contracts were assessed at 31.85 pence/therm and 31.75 p/th, respectively, compared with the day-ahead contract's assessment at 30.65 p/th at Wednesday's close.
In its 10 am forecast, system operator National Grid put demand at 212 million cu m, down 6 million cu m day on day, while supply was pegged at 194 million cu m, 17 million cu m lower than Wednesday's forecast, together suggesting an overall undersupply of 18 million cu m for Thursday.
On the supply side, gas flow through the Langeled pipeline, channeling Norwegian gas into the UK, fell from 34 million cu m/d at midnight to 15 million cu m/d at 6:30 am, National Grid data showed, the level at which it stood at 11 am.
Infeed from LNG terminals Dragon and South Hook was also shown down substantially on the day, with an aggregate impact of 16 million cu m/d between 6 am and 11 am, according to Eclipse Energy, an analytics unit of S&P Global Platts.
Mitigating these supply drops was increased flows from the Bacton terminal, seen nominated at 28 million cu m/d at 11 am, compared with Wednesday's average nomination of 22 million cu m/d, according to Eclipse Energy.
A REMIT message from Total at 5:48 am said the flow reduction seen Wednesday, with an impact of 5 million cu m/d, had ended and flow from its Bacton Seal terminal was "to slowly increase over the course of [Thursday]".
On the demand side, exports through the Interconnector pipeline were set to remain flat on the day, with 10 am nomination put at 33 million cu m, according to Eclipse.
LDZ demand, consisting mainly of residential heating, was forecast at 78 million cu m Thursday, having been 79 million cu m Wednesday, according to Eclipse Energy.
As temperatures are set to fall nearer to the weekend, LDZ demand Friday was forecast at 95 million cu m, Eclipse Energy data showed.
Eclipse's short-term demand model is calculated from latest demand, temperature and wind speed outturns in addition to deviations between weather forecasts and these last outturns.
London's weather was forecast at a high/low of 23/12 degrees Celsius Thursday, edging down to 20/8 C Friday, before plummeting to 13/8 C and 14/9 C for Saturday and Sunday, respectively, the Met Office said.
